ABSTRACT
The article has the general objective of analyzing the results of the Prior, Free and Informed Consultation carried out within the framework of the 2020-2021 electoral process in Nuevo Leon for the implementation of affirmative actions. The specific objectives are constructed from the variables 1) Degree of participation and 2) Quality of the decision taken, which in turn are made up of a series of indicators presented in this writing. The study is carried out from a qualitative approach that starts from the ethnographic work of the research team that was present during the consultation process in a virtual modality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to the review of documents of the binding agreements resulting from this consultation. Subsequently, the State Electoral Commission was requested, through the INFOMEX-NL Transparency Platform, information related to the points discussed during the consultation with respect to the candidacies of indigenous people who participated in the election day. It is concluded that the quality of the decision taken during the consultation leads to a bifurcation of results oriented merely to the implementation of affirmative actions, obtaining satisfactory results. And another that was based on a series of recommendations made to the Legislative and Executive authorities in the framework of the consultation and that were closely linked to the recognition of the rights of indigenous communities in the entity, of which no response has been consolidated.
ABSTRACT
Nepal was hard hit by a second wave of COVID-19 from April-May 2021. We investigated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 at the national and provincial levels by using data on laboratory-confirmed RT-PCR positive cases from the official national situation reports. We performed 8 week-to-week sequential forecasts of 10-days and 20-days at national level using three dynamic phenomenological growth models from 5 March 2021-22 May 2021. We also estimated effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers at national and provincial levels using established methods and evaluated the mobility trends using Google's mobility data. Our forecast estimates indicated a declining trend of COVID-19 cases in Nepal as of June 2021. Sub-epidemic and Richards models provided reasonable short-term projections of COVID-19 cases based on standard performance metrics. There was a linear pattern in the trajectory of COVID-19 incidence during the first wave (deceleration of growth parameter (p) = 0.41-0.43, reproduction number (Rt) at 1.1 (95% CI: 1.1, 1.2)), and a sub-exponential growth pattern in the second wave (p = 0.61 (95% CI: 0.58, 0.64)) and Rt at 1.3 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.3)). Across provinces, Rt ranged from 1.2 to 1.5 during the early growth phase of the second wave. The instantaneous Rt fluctuated around 1.0 since January 2021 indicating well sustained transmission. The peak in mobility across different areas coincided with an increasing incidence trend of COVID-19. In conclusion, we found that the sub-epidemic and Richards models yielded reasonable short-terms projections of the COVID-19 trajectory in Nepal, which are useful for healthcare utilization planning.